Ten bold and brazen predictions from watching the Summer League

There is a remarkable dearth of conclusion-drawing analysis of the now-finished Summer League.  On the wide thoroughfares that make up the sportswriting district of the internet, there is nary a sound to be heard.  It’s bare and barren here.  Analysts who make their living off of teasing apart the thicket of psycho-sexual and racio-cultural implications they assure us festers underneath the simple act of a player blowing in another’s ear, and doing so for several weeks on end after it has been long over, somehow have decided to kept mum about it all, tie nothing up for us, risk no big statements, derive nothing of significance.

Sure, there are a couple stray warblings from the statistically minded, who now have more numbers to crunch, and the ramblings of the farthest-gone junkies, who we would have to lock away if they didn’t have an outlet for the constant stream of ferocious hallucinations and other insights pounding away behind their eyeballs.

But mostly, we gloss it over, and no one has anything to say about what just happened.

Apparently, there are a slew of sporting events out there, waiting to be reported upon, and we only have limited time and scarce resources.  After all, Free Agency continues, remember?  There are “pieces,” and “chips,” to speculate upon.  We have to grind the wheels of the trade machine untill the teeth on the gears are stripped and mangled.  It is as if there is a secret pact to talk about everything but Summer League.  There is talk of trades, failed trades, player value, overpaying, underpaying, Daryl Morey, Kevin Love, Ray Allen, Andrew Wiggins, FIBA, the Philippines, physical exams, even cupcakes—but no Summer League analysis.

This is strange business.  Here is the NBA putting on an entire league for the enjoyment of its loyal followers and nothing of consequence gets said about the performances in it, other than that there are a couple players who “stood out.”  It serves as our first glimpse into how a rookie is transitioning into a new field of work, how he is plying his trade, what his attitude is like—and none of that matters compared to where Paul Pierce goes?

The Summer League could be taken as the definitive statement about how developing players are progressing. It is, after all, a chance to see what—outside of practices and junk time—we rarely see, which is all of the bench squad working together on a basketball court.  They usually fit in with the rest of the team piece by piece: it is not often we see them interact as players, and it is interesting to see just how well they get along (if they get along well). It is also a place to see amazing talent we’ve forgotten about, who has been shipped overseas and is now returning to try and land an invite.

And it is a serious tournament, a real set of real games.  The NBA doesn’t muck about concerning this.  They describe it in language redolent of military action.  What we witness are not, admittedly, bold clashes between hordes of foemen.  But they are undoubtedly contests, and competitiveness is on display with sometimes overwhelming ferocity.  In many ways, it could well be, viewed in another light, considered as D-League raised to its highest pitch: here are people, not just with a shot at a team, but actually on a team already, fighting not for the paltry chance of making it in the bigs but to grab a bigger slice of the actual pie, the real deal.  What stakes are higher than that for emerging players?

And yet it is as if the whole thing is considered to be a bit of a farce.  The games, it is said, don’t really count.  The defense, it is said, is shoddy to nonexistent.  The competition, it is said, is only between evolving players, not fully honed professionals.  Predictions on summer league behavior have historically been inept and turned out wrong—Batum, for example, was projected to be a bust because of his summer-league play, and look at how accurate that turned out.  He is surely laughing (all the way to the bank, indeed) at such oracular pronouncements as that.

According to this logic, the Love trade does matter much more, because that affects the actual league and how it will progress in the following year.  We know where he stands, we know what he will do.  We can assess, we can speculate.  Whereas with the Summer League nothing can be derived of note, the predictions go wrong, and if the rhetoric were to be believed, that court in Vegas does not approximate anything like the real NBA hardwood the players will dribble upon in a few months.  It might as well be made of some completely different material.  The lines could be drawn up entirely differently.

But there is a choice here.  We don’t yet have to descend to this level, which carries with it a notes of a tired, rotten cynicism. Perhaps we don’t have to regard this League merely as practice.  Maybe it does in fact matter. There could well be so much to look at, so much to derive.

So, without further ado, here are five robust and brazen predictions for the coming season which we can make, based on the empirical evidence of what we witnessed watching the Portland Trail Blazers in this Summer League.  Now is not the time to look over our shoulders and hedge our bets.  To fear venturing something, anything.  None of the timidity which apparently afflicts modern sportswriting, and which would rather retweet a story five times than write one original word or produce one wild speculation.  Now is the time for bold predictions, weighty statements, based off of precisely what we just saw with our own eyes.

First, what we saw from the Blazers.

1. In the coming season, Will Barton will shoot more accurately from behind the three point line than in front of it.

Barton behind the three point line looked good.  Looked very good.  He hit one three in each game he played, and the ones he missed weren’t bad misses.  It was strange, it was weird to watch.  Everything about his game isn’t set up for this.  He has always relied upon his quickness, pushing ahead on the fast break, driving to the basket, making a quick backcut for the alley oop.  The long-two and the acrobatic layup are the things that he performs, out there on the big stage.  There is probably no player in the NBA who less resembles Kyle Korver.

But somehow, at some point between the end of the season and Las Vegas, he has willed himself to cultivate the talent of becoming a solid and confident shooter behind the arc.  Maybe the headband was throwing off his balance out there or something.  Maybe he just realized that to play optimally in Stott’s offense with this set of guys, you got to be able to shoot spot-up threes.

Let’s not get carried away, of course.  We won’t see Barton emerge as a knockdown 3-point shooter the team goes to when the game is on the line, like Lillard, Batum, or Wright.  But we will see him coming off of more picks and fading to the wing, instead of curling to the hoop.  This will make his cuts to that hoop all the more deadly, because defenders will be less certain where he will go.  More space will be there for him to maneuver, more space to make more effective drives when he does choose to take the ball to the basket.  And in that new space too he will make more passes—not always accurately, but creatively and often extremely effectively.

The shots in front of the arc will be contested, and, like in Summer League, they will bounce off the rim and into oblivion.  But the shots from behind the arc will be taken when wide open, or off a sneaky dribble.  Barton will become, in other words, a much more effective, precise player.  He will have the attitude of a Durant, and less that of a Westbrook, seizing opportunities more than creating chances.

This doesn’t mean the higher percentage will not be the result of good fortune as much as expertise.  Barton put up shots from behind the line with a kind of hope, more than the determination to dominate or outwit that he shows when he brings it inside for a long two.  But this is precisely what makes him more effective out there: it is bizarrely the cultivation in general of talents that involve risk and incurable optimism, rather than finesse and dominance, that has brought him success on the Blazers, and the long-shot three-ball will be the next phase in that journey.

It is not an easy task to follow the path towards playing this less combative, more innocent and opportunistic and encouraging role: it means inviting the scrutiny of killjoys, skeptics, and the sardonically inclined, who think that anything achieved with the help of fortune means it could not also be achieved with the exercise of any skill at all.  But don’t expect Barton to mind these critics when he has the backing of the whole city of Portland behind him, and when he proves to be more effective than Mo Williams was at filling the 2-guard spot and switching off at the point with Steve Blake.

2. Meyers Leonard will continue to foul at a staggering pace.

Meyers Leonard cannot avoid nearly fouling out of a Summer League game.  That is disturbing.  When you have to be relieved that the Summer League allows ten fouls instead of six, this is a bad sign.  In the three games he played, on the 15th, 17th, and 18th, of July, he totaled nearly as many fouls as points.  He fouled seven times, five times, and managed to get it down to three for the last game.  That’s 15 fouls.  He scored 20 points.  On the 15th, he accomplished this feat in only 21 minutes of playing time.  That is a whole lot of fouls.

Leonard was, of course, recovering from a strange injury his shoulder, and no doubt that had an effect on his game.  Anything disturbing that magnificent body would throw whoever was inside it off-kilter: the mechanism is a vast network of many interconnected wires and few backup circuits or replaceable parts.  And as the games went on, Leonard’s performance on the whole improved—a great sign that the setback was only temporary.

The truly problematic thing, however, is that this is will be his third year in the NBA and he is still doing this against rookies and other developing players, not pros who will be gunning for him.  Granted, Summer League games are fast moving a freakish at times, and playing among more seasoned pros makes for more precision of movement and less random contact.  Also, there were some disputable calls in that 7-foul extravaganza too: a block that could have been a charge or more properly a no-call, and another tacky one just before that.  But you would think that it should on the whole be easier to avoid fouls in Summer League than anywhere else if you put your mind to it, and it doesn’t seem as if Leonard ever quite did that.

Leonard got engaged to be married this summer.  Maybe off-the-court happiness, for once, will sharpen him on the court and remove these things.  Blazers fans can be a demanding lot.  They are a feisty tribe, quick to turn on someone, and they haven’t exactly been their kindest to Leonard.  Is it his fault he came to a city suffering from post-traumatic stress after so many high draft picks have not worked out?  Is it his fault that these picks have been repeatedly big centers?  Is it his fault that with the recent taste of success and the best team they have had in about 20 years, fans are less willing to see the charm in slow development in certain areas, and indulge imperfections?  Not at all, surely.  With any sign of improvement, especially on this fouling front, Blazers fans will maybe learn that their anxieties are only based in an irrelevant past.  And the diminishment of lashing out will spur Leonard to get a handle on this foul trouble more, as well as other aspects of his game.

3. Allen Crabbe will see more playing time than Leonard.

Picture this: it is the middle of the third quarter in the beginning of January somewhere in middle America, and Allen Crabbe gets the ball from Steve Blake coming off a pick from Thomas Robinson.  He catches the ball on the wing, fakes and drives baseline.  After going up into the air he clutches and sails under the basket, putting it in on the reverse side, off the backboard.  It’s his 10th point of the game, having hit two threes, drawn a foul while cutting to the hoop and going up, and now he has made this basket.    It’s a high-scoring game for him, and he is coming to the aid of a Blazers second unit that is flagging after the holidays and too much figgy pudding.  This show of strength from Crabbe carries the team through the quarter and allows the starters to come back in and eke out a victory.

It’s not too far-fetched a picture after seeing what he did in Summer League, right?  Crabbe showed definite tenacity in going to the rim, and though his shots beyond the arc weren’t falling that much, still was putting up good looking shots.  He had amazing plays on defense, helping out skillfully, repeatedly making steals, and generally being exactly where the team needed him to be at all times.  It wasn’t as glorious work as what C.J. did, for example, but on a day when the team isn’t quite doing so hot it could prove the difference between a game scribbled down in the W column or the one with the big L over it.

Stotts will be focusing on increasing the defensive effectiveness of the Blazers next year, and this means Crabbe, who is excellent at defense, will be seeing playing time.  Leonard, with his trouble with fouls, does not help this process.  Crabbe also can keep up offensive pressure too, indeed, which isn’t always the case with Meyers.  All in all it seems to mean that he will be used a lot more than the big man, which is somewhat surprising given how crucial a big man is and how many other guards the Blazers have.  But Crabbe will earn it, like he earned all his points in the Summer League, because his hard work will be visible and have a visible payoff.

4. Joel Freeland will total more rebounds than points.

Freeland still cannot hit that jumper on the baseline consistently.  It is unclear why.  We know he was too young to fight in the Falkland Islands, so we can rule out trauma somehow affecting the shot.  But this doesn’t do much else to enlighten us.  Freeland positions himself ever so well in the same spot each time, a little off the block and right in line with the hoop.  And much too often the ball subsequently rattles off with a horrible noise that makes fans cringe and haunts them for days after witnessing it.  And if he continues to be anything but ultra-productive offensively on the rare occasions he gets the ball, expect his contributions to come mostly in practice.  With Thomas Robinson shooting well, and Chris Kaman, who can score, now on the roster, you would think there is little incentive for the Blazers to put him in except for post defense against players like Roy Hibbert and for blocking moves to the hoop.

These two things are, however, useful enough in certain circumstances, and so don’t expect him to disappear totally.  He looked extremely lean and agile out there on the court, and this clearly was helping him get a hand in people’s faces better, smack the ball away for blocks, zip out to the wing to set devastating screens and to spear rebounds out of the air.  In fact, he is looking like a better rebounder than ever—so that we might expect the same outrebounding of his point total that happened last year to occur again.  All in all, Freeland is looking like a substitute-Lopez, in other words, and that is not a bad thing.  Even Lopez, though, has an extremely consistent post hook, and Joel needs to develop something like that real quick—or face irrelevance.

5. Thomas Robinson will have at least three times as many assists as blocks.

Robinson was a beast out there in the Summer League until his thumb got tweaked.  He looked, consistently, like the best player on the floor.  The only other player more in the whole tournament, really, was Nerlens Noel.  He crushed opponents, like Noel, in every facet of the game: in points, in defense, in outmaneuvering them with savvy team-play.  In fact, he was even a little better in this last category than Noel, and this is what leads us to extrapolate our brazen prediction here.

It is not as well-known a fact as it needs to be, but Robinson is the best passer on the Blazers bench, and this skill was on full display in the Summer games.  His court vision was immaculate, and after catching the ball at the high post, would find open men as if there was no defense at all in front of him trying to block his view and muck up possible passing lanes.  He zapped passes to cutters with speed and accuracy, and demonstrated a creativity in finding holes to slip the ball through which never failed to astonish and excite.

The jumper from the top of the key which he has added to his game, and which falls consistently now with a beautiful high Aldridgian arc, helped make this possible, and promises to make his game as a distributing factor on the floor develop, quite possibly, to its fullest extent.  It makes possible excellent spacing that stretches the defense paper-thin, and also frees up the paint for moving the ball around inside: with Robinson on the court, that rare species in the wild steppe of the Moda center court, the inside pass, was seen at work.  Be prepared to see the ball moved from a close position to point-blank range in front of the backboard a lot when Robinson is up there.  Which means be prepared for a lot of satisfyingly easy layups.  Robinson is going to be a deadly force next season, and a crucial component of many wins.  This is his time—you heard it here first.

The more fastidious fan, of course, will be quick to point out that Robinson had a painfully large number of turnovers too.  But that comes with the territory, with the risks that he is now taking in living above the free throw line occasionally, and moving the ball about more.  And it is the whole better for the Blazers if he has a few turnovers than if he remains timid and doesn’t use this gift.  He also was the first to recognize this, after the first game.  He subsequently focused on getting the number down—and managed successfully to reduce them from five (per NBA.com, other sources reported him to have more) in the first game, to none in the third.  And even though he was taken out in the later part of the game, it would have taken extraordinary circumstances to give him more than two or three by the end of the game.  These are good signs.  Watch out for Robinson.

6. The Blazers’ bench will indeed be solid next year.

Obviously they didn’t win the tournament, so there’s nothing the Blazers are bragging about right now.  But there was improvement all across the board.  Robinson was key to their success, so when they played at a subpar level without him it was hardly a sign of failure.  In fact, the way that the team lost directly upon his exit from the tournament could be seen as encouraging, because it indicates how much the team concept and chemistry, the interdependence of all the parts at work, was necessary for their success.  Which means they are working as a unit, working as a team.  Teams with players who can be taken off and put back on while everyone individually continues contributing might in truth be the ones who have to be worried: it is a sign there is less of the mutual support that was so visible among the Blazers’ bench players throughout the Summer League tournament.

But there’s more to be happy about than just this.  There is the fact that, when they were indeed working well, they looked excellent.  They looked like they could beat any team.  And this was just by themselves.  Think of how well they will be with some starters leavened into that mix!  The result can’t but be satisfying: the stability of Kaman and Blake, combined with their proven offensive and defensive gifts, makes this bench a force to be reckoned with, rather than a liability.

All of which means, quite simply, that Blazer fans don’t have to invest in a large stock of migraine tablets anymore for when the bench subs in.  Gone are the days where they gnash their teeth as the bench gives up a 30-point lead.  This at the very least can be said with authority, after seeing this group play, and knowing what Kaman and Blake will bring to them.  And though it is dispiriting to think that things ever could get that ugly in the first place, it is comforting to know that there is no possibility of it happening again. The bench is simply just too good, there are too many solid pieces and options available to stem the tide if it ever gets that bad.  I’ll say it again: there will be no giving up 30-point leads next year!  Not one! 

That pretty much covers the Blazers, or at least some of the most important things about the Blazers.  Let’s see if we can continue and come up with some quick brash predictions about the NBA in general.  How about this:

7. Doug McDermott will be the second highest scoring player in no less than four Bulls games next season (if they keep him and don't trade him for Kevin Love).

Not only are they going to play the man significant minutes, they are going to give him the ball, too.  This guy is a machine.  He averaged 18 points in the Summer League, four rebounds, and a 44% three-point percentage on 27 attempts.  He was shooting, he was scoring, he was rebounding.  He will be a great player off the bench to swap off with Taj Gibson (if they don't trade him for Kevin Love too), and that one-two punch could be deadly for many teams in the East, who are seriously lacking in depth at that spot.  It's plausible that it is in fact a better situation than having Kevin Love, though it may not be enough win them a championship in the very next season, which is what they want to do.

8. Tony Snell will be the second highest scoring player in 15 Bulls games this season, and the first in scoring in three.

After seeing him this Summer League, it isn’t hard to imagine Snell actually making a real impact in some games.  The Bulls are going to be looking for offense wherever they can get it, and Snell showed that he could rise to the challenge if they simply give him the rock.  He was fifth in scoring in the Summer League, averaging 20 points a game, right behind C.J. McCollum at fourth who had 20.2.  That argues consistency. 

This is on top of his other virtues, already visible on the Bulls last season, like his defense and his knack for rebounding: he snagged an average of four a game in the Summer League.  Things are looking promising for the Bulls, in short.  Not only is Rose back, but they have players who can actually be present on offense as well. 

9. The Kings will find some way to squander the potential of Nik Stauskas.

Can’t you just see it?  It is January, and the Kings sign someone exactly like him for an inordinate amount of cash.  They bench him permanently, and he descends into a spiral of self-hatred and ignominy.  He begins indulging vices.  After a long night of searching for his whereabouts, in the early hours one Saturday morning Rudy Gay finds him lying asleep in a field of garlic outside of Gilroy with two floozies and a handle of whiskey underneath his head that he used for a pillow.

Stauskas provides the Kings with exactly what they were looking for, however: a “three point assassin,” as we say, who can spread the floor, punish on the fast break, and allow Cousins a deadly passing option in a fast-moving offense.  So maybe things won’t go so bad, and they’ll use him, and prevent this nightmare.  It will take some more convincing, though, to prove to us that the Kings aren’t fallen under a bad curse of some sort that constantly urges them to create such scenarios.

10. The Bucks will actually be worth watching.

We can be short and sweet with this last one.  Seeing Jason Kidd do sideline chat with the announcers was excruciating.  Watching Jabari Parker was fascinating.  Adding in the craziness of the Alphabet, how could you not watch at least one Bucks game next year?  And when was the last time anyone said that?

Well, there you go.  Bold predictions, based on some actual evidence.  It involves a lot of the mysterious and occult “eye-test,” indeed, but the statements seem sensible enough and there are even a few stats to back them up.  At the very least this should inspire others to believe those eyes, and convince them that the Summer League isn’t entirely valueless, compared to talk of trade news and roster-manipulations and all the talk of money, money, money, as if the games themselves weren’t telling us plenty already about what we will see in the coming year.  The Summer League is a useful indicator for exactly what the Spurs (remember them?) proved was still relevant in the NBA now: namely, a deep and effective bench and a solid culture of player-development.  While we can’t see that at work most of the time, the tournament in Las Vegas allows us something of a window into the lab, and it would be a shame to waste the opportunity to note a few things down and judge what the teams are up to on this level of their basketball operations.