NBA News: Kevin Love, LeBron, and the Cavs

The biggest news today is still what dominated our attention yesterday: a possible trade of Kevin Love from the Timberwolves to the Cavaliers. 

News came out yesterday—from Adrian Wojnarowski, who else—that LeBron James personally reached out to Love. 

Still there’s much debate over whether keeping Andrew Wiggins is a better idea.  Though at this point we only have glimpses of how he will perform against something like NBA competition, all those signs are good: per NBA.com statistics, he is currently 26th in points per game in the summer league (trailing Portland’s own C.J. McCollum, who is averaging 20 points a game and is 3rd), and putting up other stats that read more like Ben McLemore’s, or Alexy Shved's—that is, non-rookies.  He has a total field goal percentage of 41%, and is pulling down 3.5 rebounds a game.  It was clear he had potential to be one of the great players in the league in a few years, but it is arguable that he will be extremely useful to the Cavs come this next regular season.

And that is the question that divides both sides on this issue. The discussion isn’t even yet to the stages where a trade between the two sides can be discussed rationally.  The two sides don’t even see eye to eye.  Some think it is obvious to keep him, some think it is absolutely obvious to trade him.

The discussion wouldn’t have ground down into this stalemate, though, if Love would have been able to show more of his skills in the playoffs.  The biggest knock against Love is that he is simply an all-star who has never made it there and never performed for an extended period at that level of play.  And the strange phenomenon of Chris Paul, who has never made it past the first round, isn’t necessarily an accident: tendencies that help in the regular season, sometimes work against teams in the post-season, so people don’t like to extrapolate from what they have seen from Love to what he might be like in the playoffs.

In fact, it may be worse than this.  C.J. McCollum wrote eloquently last week (in a piece we will look more in depth at soon) about just how completely different the playoffs are from the regular season.  Every possession counts, every mistake is magnified, and what this means is that everything that was repetitive and able to be perfected in the regular season, suddenly can’t be repeated.  There are no second chances.  And playing with that in mind makes for something different.  So the very things that are impressive about Kevin Love—his statistics—in this case bizarrely argue against him as a player on a team with championship aspirations.

But what numbers!  Instead of looking at the totals, let’s take a game from the season: the December 18th game against the Trail Blazers at the Target Center.  Per basketball-reference.com, Love played 40 minutes, had 29 points, 15 rebounds, and 9 assists.  More impressive, he went 4 for 7 from the three point line, had a true shooting percentage of .703, and an effective field goal percentage of .667.  He had a defensive rebounding percentage of 30%--he scooped up a whopping 30% of all available defensive rebounds.  LaMarcus Aldridge (who gets his fair share of rebounds on defense) had a 24% defensive rebounding percentage for comparison.   Even more unbelievable: he had a total rebound percentage of 18%--for every five or so rebounds that the Wolves had the chance of grabbing from the Blazers, the ball was snagged by Love one of those times.  That’s amazing.  But the single most impressive statistic is that he had more assists and a greater assist percentage than Ricky Rubio.  This is not a Dwight Howard-like (at least on the Rockets) ball-stopping force in the post.  This is a fluid quantity that can find someone from the post, come up to swing the ball with ease to keep the offense moving, or fire it in to a cutter almost like a point guard.

It is that passing skill that recommends Love most to the Cavs, who will most likely have a fluid, motion-filled, flexible offense next year. David Blatt will probably run something that involves a lot of passing, and having a player like Love who can not only put the ball in the hoop, but distribute it when he gets it, is not only a clear advantage over having someone like Wiggins but simply destroys most of the East in general.  The team will have three amazing passers that can pass from any position on the court in James, Irving, and Love: that is more than any team in the east except the Bulls and perhaps what remains of the Heat can likely defend well.  Furthermore, passing is arguably the most translatable skill between the regular season and the playoffs—as the Spurs showed us last year, so long as you are running your offense consistently, a player who can thread passes between the hyperactive arms and hands of NBA defenders in the regular season will likely have a good chance at doing the same against even the extra defensive pressure that comes with the playoffs.

In the end, the important thing for the Cavs is that it is effectively a win-win situation.  Either they keep a very good player, or they get a great one.  If they trade Wiggins, they will also probably have to trade Bennett, rumors say, so that would eat a bit of a hole in their roster, and lose another potentially good player.  But the advantages may be too great.

Regardless of what happens with the trade, however, it is more indication of the expanded role that James will be taking on the Cavs: that of taking greater role in the team.  James signed his contract with this in mind.  James in fact might want to have a stake in the ownership of the team as a player—something that may well be possible after the next Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations.  Regardless, he is showing more managerial prowess than he ever showed in Miami from the get-go: not too long ago the most effective way LeBron could influence a decision at Miami was to use twitter to mention a player.  The hierarchy is evident in such a move: management reaches down to deign to use one of LeBron’s opinions.  Now, he seems to be doing the bidding of the organization itself, working close with Gilbert and the people calling the shots, using his image and his clout in order to make concrete the organization’s wishes—but also to guide it in directions that he himself would like to see taken.

In this respect, his positioning of himself as “the old head,” as he charmingly put it in his essay explaining his decision, is already paying off.  He seems to have stepped into another role and assumed expanded responsibilities just in signing the dotted line.  He appears already more of a community activist in the area of Northeastern Ohio, than he ever could have appeared in Miami.  This, regardless of what happens with Love, is excellent news for the organization, and could be a great development for the NBA in general, in the way teams involve themselves with the communities around them: having the greatest player in the world so interested in this dynamic makes all sorts of concrete links between fandom and athletic success possible.  So expect more news from that front, as James settles back in to Northeast Ohio and the Cavs continue their preparation for the next season.

Morning Roundup, May 21, 2014: MURDER!!

So, the big story of today is, of course, that the Cleveland Cavs killed the NBA with the candlestick in the library...or that room whereever they hold the draft.

Above is Bill Simmons' reaction, which, as usual with his reactions (WOAH!), was priceless ("This is MURDER!" as Sage Steele was quick to point out).  You have to love the man, volunteering his emotions for the benefit of all of us.  Simmons had a wonderful must-read karma ranking article yesterday over at Grantland which was extremely sane, if you buy the basic premise: basically you deserve a good pick if your team worked hard, you have tried to run a pretty tight ship management-wise for the past few years, and you're due for something good happening to the team.  Based on that, if everything went right, and luck went to who it should have gone to, Simmons concluded, then the chance at a top pick would go to the Suns, Celtics, Nuggets, Pistons, Bucks, Jazz, Lakers, Pelicans, Magic, Sixers, Kings, Wolves, and the Cavs--in that order. He ranked Boston too high--I would have put the Pistons higher--but one can see something of the logic that must have been behind it: if one of the factors in getting a high pick is that you have to be in a city who is hurting sports-wise and is in need a real basketball team--and has a demonstrated record of having a really excellent basketball fanbase--then Boston definitely qualifies as up there.  Definitely much more than Cleveland.  And it probably does even though they have the Bruins--something I Simmons didn't quite factor in.  What makes up for that was simply the fact that Boston seemed like they tried this year, as he says, while it is a travesty what the 76ers did and what they ended up with (3rd)--they definitely don't deserve the karma they got. That said, everything turns on your idea of what "trying" is (if it is finding some way to keep Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, instead of trading them and sort of leaving the year to some mysterious rebuilding process--well then you may not think they deserve it); and, regardless, Philly also has an argument for being bereft of NBA action too long over Cleveland.  Well, I can't keep using Cleveland here--pretty much everyone now deserves a shot over the city of Cleveland.  I think he ranked the Bucks too low, but he factored in how they basically got to keep their franchise rather than getting it shipped over to Seattle, so that seems fair.  It was a complicated system he worked out, really it was: the key for Simmons is he is also looking at what provides the best situation from a fan perspective--and the fun thing about this is it basically produces wacky, polarizing results which are, however, incredibly civic-minded and prize local connections. I think though with that taken seriously, ultimately Detroit was ranked too low too, along with perhaps Sacramento--two teams that have turned it around and tried really hard to do so (though the Kings pretty much have already been rewarded a little too much), and who have amazing fans.  In the end though, the reality of the situation is that the actual results we got were much more dissatisfying than anything you could say about his list: Cavs, Bucks, Sixers, Magic, Jazz, Celtics, Lakers, Kings, Hornets (because the Pistons didn't get a high enough pick, so that their pick gets swapped with Charlotte), Nuggets, Wolves, Suns--this isn't too great.  The Suns got screwed, the Sixers were undeservedly rewarded, and Denver also got screwed.  Overall, though, the best thing about this, as some people are saying, may be that now, instead of the Harden trade, Simmons be crapping on just how freaking horrible the Cavs are for the next year, and how much their fans deserve better from their management rather than the NBA as a league (which they do).  In the end, the article was too fascinating really for me to sum up here--I think I'll write something on it separately and on Simmons in general.  But it is a must read.

Jim Cavan at Bleacherreport also has a must-read collection of player reactions to the draft.  Highlights: Brandon Jennings in disbelief and befuddlement, with the quick retraction along the lines of, well, you can't hate the Cavs really once you think about it (which is true--you can only hate their management); Kendall Marshall with the outraged confusion, which produces eventually the speculation that the Cavs practice black magic; Demarcus Cousins with a cynicism it has been somewhat surprising and depressing to see him exhibit recently; Austin Rivers asking Kyrie Irving blatantly just how they do this--not to be snarky, just in a kind of wonderment and genuine desire to actually learn what on earth they do so that he himself might take it to management and prescribe it; Quincy Miller with the far-reaching storyline projection that this means LeBron will go back to Cleveland; and Dahntay Jones with the devastating reflection that "all that tanking was for nothing." For us Portland fans, Batum had simply this to say: "Again?!?!"

But it may have been the most apt comment, the most generally felt sentiment--though Simmons' reaction also ranks up there.  It was certainly the reaction of everyone at the Lottery itself, it seems, as Zach Lowe reports in his great dispatch from the event.  "People just kind of laughed when they won the no. 1 pick."  What's most interesting is this tidbit: "I am almost frightened that Cohen might be a warlock, and I asked him after the lottery if it is tempting after all these wins to believe he can influence events that would appear beyond his control. 'I’ve always believed you create your own luck,' he said."  This seems like a semi-reasonable response to such a question, which already is not entirely rational.  But as soon as Cohen expanded upon it, things began to look quite odd: "'Luck just isn’t sitting there. You have to believe you are entitled to it. You have to see it, to visualize it. It doesn’t always work, but three years out of four, I mean, that’s pretty good.'"  Cohen talks as if the result were a result of some kind of effort: "that's pretty good," is what you say if you've made some sort of attempt to win what is a random event, and not just this year, but EVERY YEAR.  It focuses on the failure, as if that one time they didn't get it, they were doing something wrong, which they could correct.  And that's just weird.  That way lies madness, one has to console oneself in thinking.  But that just seems also to be the attitude of each of the teams, really.  The Sixers really sound like they think they deserved the number one pick, and that they were disappointed with number 3: Philly took the slide back to no. 3 in stride. 'I guess part of you wants the no. 1 pick, just to have the option,' O’Neil said. 'But having two lottery picks, plus Nerlens coming back to join the Rookie of the Year — I’ll take that every day and twice on Sunday.'" This somewhat makes sense--the expected number one pick, Joel Embiid, is a huge deal, and would instantly change the dynamic of a team for the better.  And indeed there is much more that goes on in working towards success than just winning games: these are effectively media empires, these franchises, each one of them, and the work they do is noble, even if their team tanks in the actual contests.  They are a part of the cities they play in, they are a part of the communities of fans that they build.  At the same time, shouldn't these people just be thankful that they get a chance to be really close to the number one pick at all?  As we found out, we really have no clue what will happen.

Finally, a very good article by Mike Mayer at the SBnation Cavs blog, Fearthesword.com, going through all the implications of the no. 1 pick.  "The draft and the lottery are about hope: the hope that our team might get back to that place again, sooner rather than later. Hope is a powerful thing, especially for fans who have rooted for a team near the bottom of the conference for the last four seasons. Hope is all we've had. But it won't be enough anymore."  This hits the nail on the head.  Sports ultimately, as I said in another column, are about results, not hope.  They model for us what excellence in productivity looks like, the translation of effort and practice into reality (pace Allen Iverson, who was absolutely right about this, as with many other things).  They don't model hope for us, yearning, all of that.  At least professional sports don't: college sports can do the dirty business of monetizing those types of things; the pros are cleaner than that, more transparent.  And so a city and fanbase absolutely is more in the right in wanting results, always, than in wanting things more abstract: they therefore should, this year, absolutlely it from management, and be up in arms at every single moment in which the organization fails to live up to their expectations.  If the Cavs don't turn things around this year, they need to take a cue from the Knicks fanbase, and start making signs and posters.  This is a real opportunity: scrutiny will be on the organization--as Mayer points out--and in a way the fans now have the chance to, by way of changing expectations, change the type of product that they are getting.  This is what I take him to be claiming when he says the following: "Plenty of people have said that this organization doesn't deserve all of the luck they've had. Maybe that's true. But I know this: Cavs fans absolutely do deserve it."  Essentially, the fanbase simply has to get its confidence back and learn to demand the excellence that before i silently hoped for.  Key to this--which Mayer doesn't mention, except in passing--is getting over the whole Lebron thing.  I'm speaking of a Portland fan who is absolutely frustrated at all the talk of Oden and how that worked out.  They need to envision a future where they build a team that can actually win against a Miami Heat team with Lebron still on it--not keep wishing for someone to come back.  Get over it, people, and look towards the future and what can be done now that the situation is different, or simply not the same as it was.