Thursday, September 18, 2014

Don't Worry, Be Happy: The Blazers' have a tough but manageable 2014-15 schedule

Blazers fans have good reason to be optimistic about Portland’s schedule. Initially, when it came out last month, there was wailing and gnashing of teeth.  Several people in my apartment building jumped out of windows.  They were first-floor windows, so they caused a mess more than anything. I had to spend the rest of the day with a broom and sweep it up.  But it was still quite a reaction.  I don’t blame them.  Usually a voice of reason in chaotic timesDave Deckard over at Blazers’ Edge was blaring klaxon alarums from atop Mount Hood, warning us that the schedule was “going to get real nasty, real quick.” Erik Gundersen of The Columbian was beating on pots and pans shrieking even louder that the season started with “the toughest teams,” and after that only got “harder and more star-studded.”  But a closer inspection, after some transpired time and jet-cooling, shows things to be not so bad after all.  I say unto you, fellow Portland patriots, fear not.

The Blazers will indeed have a tougher time rocketing out to a league-leading record like last year.  From October to the end of December they play OKC twice, Cleveland, Golden State, San Antonio twice, Dallas, the Clippers, Chicago twice, and Memphis. That’s a much harder mix than last year, where they spent a lot of time blasting through the crummy East.  That said, no team in basketball wins merely because of the relative ease of the schedule: last year the Blazers also had to face the Spurs, the Bulls, the Warriors, the Thunder, and the Pacers on their way to being 24 and 5 and first in the West on December 26th, and that was when before the Pacers contracted that strange collective sickness that rotted their insides.  Nevertheless, it will indeed be harder this year.  Fans are advised to stock up on migraine medication for the months of October through December. 

December in particular may produce feelings of self-hatred and overpowering weltschmertz.  It may well be a good time to get caught up in the holiday spirit of things, seek out family members and friends, and surround yourself with comforting reminders that life, after all, is worth living. Particularly difficult will be that section of the schedule between November 23rd and December 23rd, which Blazer announcer Mike Barrett, among others, bemoaned.  This run of games features a spree of 5 away games in 7 nights between December 7th and 13th.  It concludes with four road games in five nights between December 19th and the 23rd against Spurs, the Pelicans, the Rockets, and the Thunder.  Fortunately, the Rockets won’t be as much of a threat as last year, and the Pellies, though they now will be extremely difficult to beat with Asik and Davis tag-teaming everyone, are still the Pellies.

Also fortunately, most of the other games in this opening stretch of the season and during these tough road trips are against that embarrassment to the civic pride of half the nation, the Eastern Conference.  And while the East is, mercifully for our eyeballs and in general our sanity, somewhat better this year, many of the teams in the conference improved only because they shuffled themselves around significantly.  The Blazers, by contrast, have a steel-solid roster.  That means Portland has two advantages in chemistry and momentum coming out of last year’s success.  While the Cavs, the Bulls, the Knicks and other teams are figuring out their pecking orders and LeBron and Kyrie are still bickering over who gets the last slice of pizza in the cafeteria, the Blazers will be going about business as usual.  That could be good for several wins in that period. 

As far as the rest of the season goes, however, things shape up pretty well.  The new year begins afresh, and the Blazers, cleansed and purged of the roughness of December, and restored through the ingestion of strange and pungent holiday meats, will be ready to dismantle the rest of the league.  Their first game will be a wonderful challenge: January 3rd they play Atlanta in the Rose Garden, against a Hawks team that is balanced, disciplined, and generally looking like it means business. A good win against them would mean a lot, and get some good vibes flowing through the Blazers’ collective fighting chakras.  And if all goes well, a win here may well be followed by the team going on a veritable tear.  Following that game they get a couple easy wins against what will be a horrible, horrible Lakers team.  Watch these games.  You will be rewarded as our mighty Steve Blake places Kobe Bryant under his left heel (the one with the good Achilles) and squeezes the last remaining bits of life out of the Mamba.  Following that is a rough patch: Clippers, Spurs, Griz.  Also, there is Phoenix, which were the Blazers’ kryptonite last year for some bizarre reason, and caused countless screams of “DRAAGGICC!!!” to echo along my block at 3 a.m. as my neighbors were visited with night-terrors.  But then we’re doing fine for the rest of the month, with only the Kings, Boston, Washington, Brooklyn, and Cleveland to contend with, and Atlanta again just to round things off and give it a nice poetic structure.  With a little Milwaukee sprinkled on the top there just for taste, January should end well.

February, though, is where we all get out the party hats.  Be ready for some big wins.  Just now, when the team is tired and feeling low, and the hair on Robin Lopez’ head droops and sags with the weight of the long season, the team encounters its easiest stretch of schedule.  No big road trips, lots of games at home, and easy ones to boot.  As long as the Blazers don’t get complacent, they can cruise through the month with a lot of wins and gather momentum for the playoffs.  Of course, the All-Star Break will be a little longer this year for everyone, with most teams getting a full eight days off (with possibly more, depending on schedule), instead of the four or five (last year the Blazers got seven days off, though Lillard had zero).  But still, the lineup this month is promising: Utah, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, the Lakers, Utah again.  Then things get a little spicy with Memphis, San Antonio, and OKC, but these last three games have the inestimable advantage of being at home.

March then begins with a relatively easy start, with only the Clippers and Dallas to worry about (I know I am underestimating Houston, but Blazers fans should treat the Rockets henceforth with haughty disdain no matter what the composition of their team).  Then a whopper of a road trip between March 15 and the 21st to take care of that pesky East one last time (before the Finals, of course): Toronto, Washington, Miami, Orlando, Memphis.  Then, alas, two games against Phoenix.  TWO!  One away on the 27th, then one at home on the 30th.  If we haven’t figured out our anti-Kryptonite by then, I’m going to be hiding under a blanket during those games.

Finally, April.  We’ve made it, gents.  The home stretch.  Clippers, Lakers, NOLA (at home), Minnesota (at home), GS, then Utah (at home).  If you haven’t got a home ticket by then, well, don’t.  Wait for playoffs.  The Jazz are getting things together, but not that together.  The season will be finished on the road with OKC, returning where we started, and then Dallas and Dirk (though, more likely, our old friend Ray Felton) to close things out. 

So, the schedule shapes up nicely, when one takes a look at it on the whole.  Not as good as it does for the Jazz, who play nearly a third of their season against opponents who will be passing through Salt Lake on the second night of a back to back.  This has raised a few eyebrows, but because Cleveland and OKC only have 10 and 11, not too many are going to voice complaints—on the whole the good teams got a tougher schedule there.  Blazer fans certainly won’t complain too much: Portland is going to be playing 22 games against opponents with no rest days, which is nearly as many (Utah has 27).

Meanwhile, if the Blazers can just get over the initial hump, and find the reserves of strength to get going after December, they’ll be in good shape.  And while there is a bit to be worried about in that early period, it isn’t enough to really make you to lose your head.  Blazers fans are going to see them take on the best and the toughest early on, when the whole team is freshest and ready to roll.  I fail to see a downside here.  Unless, of course, we lose.

But that’s the whole point, isn’t it?  The schedule is set up to be a real test of whether the Blazers are making it.  Lingering doubts still set in occasionally—I too, yes, am victim to them—that the Rockets series could really have gone either way, that the Blazers aren’t as good as they promise to be.  But then BASTA! I dismiss such madness: they are a great team, about as good as the Heat last year in wins, and that ain’t bad, Jack.  Bring on the cruelest thing the calendar can chuck at us.  We just replaced our first floor windows, dammit, and if necessary, we know where to get more!

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