Well it could only be a comedown after what happened in the first round. But I think we were all hoping for less of a comedown than this.
This is not looking good for the Blazers. Everything I feared might happen did happen, and then some. Pop went right for Lillard from the beginning of the game. He was running him through one or two screens a possession on Parker. Once the Spurs tired him out they simply would manhandle him on yet another pick and roll. Splitter was physical with Aldridge and established dominance, and the help defense was always at the ready to mess with him if he turned to the basket. They clogged the paint excellently and forced tough layups and long twos. Adjustments look like they were being made: late in the second quarter Stotts switched Matthews on to Parker, and contained his attack up the middle. The Spurs, of course, simply countered this move by playing Parker off the ball at two-guard, effectively taking the Blazer's best defender off the likes of Manu and Kawhi--which is why this was not Stotts' first choice. The Blazers started to play pick and roll with Aldridge, ramming him through the paint into the basket, and he's getting there--though there is a high risk of turnovers there. They managed to look much better in the second half and nearly tie the Spurs in points each quarter. But the Blazers need to be doing more than just catching up.
It's this defense and matchup-adjustment that is harming the Blazers, though, really, and unless they find some way to deal with this, they have real problems. It's nothing more involved than that, really. The Spurs are hitting shots, but at a simply efficient clip: they aren't extremely hot or anything. When the Blazers are able to contain them on defense, their strategy of forcing the long two and getting the rebound is working. The only other thing that is troubling them severely is the lack of offensive rebounds: the Spurs are absolutely attacking the boards on defense, and Lopez can't fend off three guys at once.
This is perhaps why Stotts seems to be playing up an interesting offensive tactic. There were barely any three pointers shot in the first half, by one of the best three-point shooting teams in the NBA. Instead, Stotts is stressing taking the ball to the basket. This would, it seem, generate easy points and perhaps offensive rebounds, and threaten to collapse the defense so that threes at some point could later get open. Except the Spurs are playing such good, tight defense that this isn't happening: they both aren't allowing rebounds and are forcing Blazers to pull up from 12 feet. This Mo Williams and Nic Batum are a bit too eager to do: success only comes from this when you are as fearless as Wes Matthews or Lillard, or as big as Aldridge, and go at the basket full-throttle.
But this could be a deep game too. Stotts is perhaps setting up some adjustments for later in the game that depend more on three-point shooting. I wouldn't put it past him. But trying to outcoach Pop is going to be difficult. The Spurs simply have too many tools to play with. For every adjustment, they can counter-adjust. If the Blazers can force the Spurs into more isolation with Duncan by challenging their 3-point shots (they proved themselves capable of this on a few plays), and start getting three-point shooters open, they might still have a chance in this game.
One of the most amazing fundamental things though that is disrupting the Blazers seems to be San Antonio's ability to control spacing. The Blazers are one of the best teams at spacing the floor, but the Spurs have been able to pester Aldridge enough to take away his turn to the basket, while at the same time laying back only so far from the outside shooters so that Aldridge can't pass except into traffic. This seemed more cleaned up in the second half, in which the Blazers seemed to make adjustments and retain scoring parity with San Antonio--not an easy accomplishment. If they can integrate these changes moving forward, things might get more interesting.
But this also depends on the type of energy the Spurs will bring to each one of the games. The first half was a blitzkrieg. They obviously did not want to do what Houston did and allow the Blazers into the series, and they set out with a singleness of purpose that was simply astounding. It was a beautiful thing to watch the entire bench getting into every single possession, and not resting until they are up by 30. It reminded us, I think, that these guys are not just a machine built for winning, but a group absolutely hellbent on a championship. The question will be whether they will continue to use this energy at the most opportune moments, and how much of it they have at the ready. One thing the Blazers have proven is that they don't give up easily--and in a way simply getting blown out is one of the things they are most prepared to handle mentally, through their struggles in the regular season and in their battle with Houston.
Meanwhile I'll be hoping Manu's shoe breaks, or something else that would help the Blazers pull this one off.
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